Democrat State Representative Cedric Richmond is going after GOP Rep. Joseph Cao in Louisiana's heavily Democratic Second Congressional District in 2010. This was the former congressional seat of William "Dollar Bill" Jefferson (D-On Appeal).
Most pundits consider Cao's win in 2008 a fluke. Cao is a Vietnamese-American Republican in a heavily African-American (and therefore, Democratic) district - a district Richmond partly represents on the State level. While Richmond's run would appear a slam dunk, don't count Cao out. He won in 2008 when Barack Obama was on the ballot, a turnout the Democrats will not likely repeat in 2010. And, Cao is trying to be more in the center politically. Plus, Richmond has some baggage that may be a factor: this little legal issue, and his anti-Second Amendment proposals.
The race will be close, so expect a lot of national attention and dollars. First, New Orleans/Katrina is still a simmering issue nationally for both parties, and will be used by each to bludgeon the other in 2010. Second, the GOP wants to keep the seat and show they can compete in a majority-minority district, while the Democrats and Obama want to return a seat they think, well, belongs to them.
This is one campaign worth watching.
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