03 January 2008

Iowa Spinning.

The "Thrilla In Des Moines" is over. Before anyone makes too much of a stink over it, remember two things: first, Iowa does not have a great track record of picking the next President, or even the nominees; and second, it's a looooong way to November.

That being said, here is my take - which is worth exactly what you paid for it:

If you didn't finish in the top three, go home. (Yes, that means you, Rudy. And you, too, Ron.) Part of the importance of Iowa is to see if you can convince the party faithful in Middle America to trudge out in the dead of winter to support you.

The two candidates anointed by the Legacy Media, John McCain and Hillary Clinton, did poorly. Both will do better in New Hampshire, but I think the die is cast. Both have an uphill battle.

Obama is, I think, the one to beat on the Dems side, as he comes out of ths with momentum with the Democratic faithful. Hillary has a fight on her hands, as the Party faithful are not in a mood to cotton to anything that smacks of more center than Left. And the Breck girl, John Edwards, has no national appeal outside of a very select audience.

On the GOP side, the reoprts of the demise of the Evangelical vote are much in error, as the showing of Huckabee and Romney confirm. Thompson's third place, just barely beating McCain, shows that there is dissatisfaction with the GOP front-runners. Ron Paul's showing seems to indicate that, too.

Am I right? We'll see.

UPDATE: While getting ready for work I caught a bit of whatever that morning program is over on CBS. And they were fawning all over John McCain and Mike Huckabee, which tells me who the Legacy Media thinks are the GOP candidates most beatable by a Democrat. They were putting up some positive spin for Hillary, too, but not as much as I expected. (Are the dukes and duchesses of the Fourth Estate looking elsewhere now that their heroine came in third? Hmmm.) And Stephen Green asks a very relevant post-caucus question about the Iowa GOP.

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