The herds of presidential contenders thundering across the Granite State comes to a close today. (They will, alas, reappear shortly in the Palmetto State.) Here's my prediction for tonight's results: Dems - Obama, Edwards, Hillary. GOP - McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Thompson.
Anyone who declares the Clinton dynasty dead if she looses badly here, does so at their peril. Hillary ain't done yet. The Clintons are masters of 'situational ethics', media theatre, and the comeback. They have a track record of doing whatever it takes to get what they want. And the junior Senator from New York wants the Oval Office.
I do not think Ron Paul will do at all well in this, the most Libertarian of states. Partly because of all the Democrats from Massachusetts and Connecticut who have moved in in the past few years, and partly because I think Ron Paul creeps out more New Englanders than he excites. He ain't no Harry Browne.
UPDATE:
OK, so I got it sort of right. Sort of. Like most pundits, I suppose. Well, here's the results of my stunning 20/20 hindsight, which, once again, is worth exactly what you paid for it:
Big winners: John McCain and Barak Obama. McCain was history only a week ago, and Obama did well in a state that is not his home region.
Big Loosers: Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and Rudi Guliani. Hillary has been working the Granite State since November 6th, 2004; she should have stomped everyone, and didn't. Big advantage for Obama. Rudy had also been working the Granite State hard, and only barely edged out Ron Paul. Time to call it a day, Rudy. Romney should have won in a state bordering his home state, but only pulled second. Not a good sign. And Fred..... What the hell happened to my main man?? Beaten by the write-in vote???? If he doesn's turn it around big in South Carolina, I'm looking for another dance partner.
Even: Mike Huckabee. Third place for a southern evangelist in a New England state. Not bad. Not bad at all. I guess the Letterman bit paid off.
Loosers Before, Loosers After: John Edwards, Ron Paul, and all the rest. Whatever John Edawars' message is, it ain't working. John, go back to your (approximatelly) 500,000 square foot house and count your money. Ron Paul did not even break double didgits - and if he can't do that in New Hampshire, I can's see how he will do it anywhere else. He will continue to be an asteresk in the GOP primaries because he doesn't know when to quit beliving his own propaganda (a common Libertarian mistake). And did you know Joe BIden was running in New Hampshire? Aparrently, neither did anybody else.
1 comment:
It's looking as thoughRon Paul has a bit of a past. If so, Dr. Paul may be on his last legs as a candidate.
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