According to The Rothenberg Political Report, Louisiana's Sixth Congressional District is still a "toss-up."
I would call it more than a toss-up, given the rather conservative political leanings of the district, but it all depends on who the GOP runs against Cazayoux. If Woody Jenkins, in a triumph of ego over experience, runs again - then you can put the Sixth in the 'D' column for sure.
UPDATE: Well, Rep. Cazayoux's seat is looking pretty safe, as Woody Jenkins is thinking about loosing all over again:
Jenkins said in a phone interview Tuesday Roemer’s decision to bow out is a factor in his own consideration to run. Jenkins said he wants to make sure there is a strong conservative candidate on the Republican ticket.
“I am close to making a decision, and that decision will probably be to run,” Jenkins said in an e-mail Tuesday.
Sad thing is, I support much of what Jenkins supports. Smaller government. Lower taxes. Eliminating terrorists. It's not a bad message, but Woody Jenkins is a very bad messenger. A Ronald Reagan he is not. (More like a lightweight Pat Buchanan, IMHO) What put Cazayoux in the winner's seat was not low voter turnout as Jenkins' claims, but high voter turn-off. Jenkins' has unique a ability to turn off a sizable enough chunk of the GOP base to make him a looser in every race he has entered outside of his statehouse district. Remember, Republican Woody Jenkins LOST in a district that voted 82% for the Republican just 18 months before. That takes some skill. Or lack thereof.
If Jenkins is really serious about the GOP recapturing the 6th District seat in the fall, he will not put his hat in the ring. It's time to let someone else, someone who has a chance of getting elected, carry the GOP banner this fall.